Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan to anchor Europe s oil supply through 2050, OPEC says

BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 10. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are expected to play an increasingly important role in securing Europe’s crude oil needs over the long term, as the continent continues to pivot away from Russian energy supplies, says OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook 2050, Trend reports.

The report forecasts that crude and condensate exports to Europe will stabilize at around 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) through 2050. While this figure is considerably lower than pre-2022 levels—when Russian crude still flowed freely into the EU—it highlights the growing strategic importance of alternative Caspian suppliers, particularly Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

OPEC notes that the EU embargo on Russian oil has reshaped traditional supply routes. Imports from the broader Russia & Caspian region are projected to drop slightly from 1.8 mb/d in 2024 to just below 1.7 mb/d by 2030, eventually settling around 1.6 mb/d toward the end of the forecast period. Crucially, this volume will consist predominantly of non-Russian barrels, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan expected to provide a substantial share.

The report suggests it is unlikely that Russian crude exports to Europe will return to pre-conflict levels. This cements the long-term outlook for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan as reliable suppliers for the European market.