National Bank of Kazakhstan keeps base rate unchanged

ASTANA, Kazakhstan, July 11. The National Bank of Kazakhstan has maintained the base interest rate at 16.5 percent, Trend reports.

According to the information provided, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan decided to set the base rate at 16.5 percent per annum with a +/-1 percentage point corridor.

“Annual inflation in June was 11.8 percent. Price increases were recorded across all components. The main contribution continues to come from the services sector (16.1 percent) due to both rising prices for regulated services amid ongoing tariff reforms and for market-based services,” the National Bank of Kazakhstan stated.

Moreover, food inflation (10.6 percent) also made a significant contribution due to the rising cost of imported goods and key agricultural products. Monthly inflation slowed to 0.8 percent. Core inflation indicators increased slightly: base inflation was 0.9 percent, and seasonally adjusted inflation reached 1.0 percent. This indicates persistent inflationary pressure, driven by ongoing tariff reforms, fiscal stimulus, and strong consumer demand—supported in part by high growth in retail lending.

The National Bank has observed that the prevailing equilibrium of inflationary determinants, the trajectory of its present velocity, pro-inflationary tendencies, and persistent external volatility engender a substantial probability that the benchmark interest rate will sustain its existing status quo until the conclusion of 2025. Nonetheless, the Monetary Policy Committee does not preclude the potential for an elevation of the base rate should circumstances warrant such an adjustment.
The forthcoming determination regarding the base rate will hinge on the outcomes of the forecast cycle, wherein macroeconomic projections will undergo recalibration.

The National Bank’s next scheduled decision on the base rate will be announced on August 29, 2025, at 12:00 PM Astana time.

Stay up-to-date with more news on Trend News Agency's WhatsApp channel